Introduction

Explain the purpose, methods, schedule, and evaluation criteria of the lecture. Understand the basics of systems dynamics modeling and simulation.

Systems Thinking and Causal Loop Diagram

Understand the basics of systems thinking and be able to visualize and analyze the structure of a complex system issue using causal loop diagram.

Stock and Flow Diagram

Learn how to develop stock flow diagrams using software. Understand the structure of exponential growth behavior, goal seeking behavior and oscillation behavior.

Modeling of S-shaped Growth

Learn how to develop SI model to reproduce S-shaped growth behavior. Test the model validity using time series data. To be able to construct an epidemic process model for infectious diseases diffusion.

Modeling of Market Diffusion

Learn how to develop Bass diffusion model to forecast the market penetration of products and services. To be able to construct a product disposal process model for durable consumer goods and a product repurchase process model for consumables.

Final Project

Apply the learned theories and modeling techniques to replicate the diffusion process of products and services. Use causal loop diagrams to derive hypotheses about the mechanisms of problem occurrence, and construct simulation models using stock and flow diagrams. Conduct reproducibility tests of the model using time-series data, execute simulations under multiple scenarios, and make future predictions based on the results.

Final Presentation

Summarize the results of modeling and simulation on the diffusion process of innovation, and present them in the class.

Assignments: 60%
Final presentation: 40%