授業科目名 年度 学期 開講曜日・時限 学部・研究科 全担当教員 単位数
91310:Technology ManagementⅢ(MA) § 91311:特殊講義（共通）(EA) § 91312:政策科学研究特別講義(P2) 2022 春２Ｑ 水2-3 政策科学研究科,理工学研究科,テクノロジー・マネジメント研究科 湊 宣明 2

キャンパス

OIC/OIC

授業施設

AC348セミナールーム/AC348セミナールーム

授業で利用する言語

English and Japanese

授業の概要と方法

This is an introductory-level modeling and simulation course for practicing technology and innovation management. Innovative technologies such as internet and mobile phone tend to diffuse in a market indicating typical s-shape trajectory overtime. We learn the basics of modeling and simulation techniques to evaluate long-term, dynamic behavior of innovation diffusion. The lectures will be given in face-to-face classes.

受講生の到達目標

The goal of the course is for students to acquire fundamental modeling and simulation skill using System Dynamics to predict the market diffusion of new products and services.

事前に履修しておくことが望まれる科目

None

授業スケジュール

授業回数/
担当教員（複数担当の場合） 		テーマ
キーワード・文献・補足事項等
Lecture #1 - #2

Introduction

Explain the purpose, methods, schedule, and evaluation criteria of the lecture. Understand the basics of system dynamics modeling and simulation.

Lecture #3 - #4

Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

Understand the basics of systems thinking and be able to visualize and analyze the structure of a complex system issue using causal loop diagram.

Lecture #5 - #6

Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD)

Learn how to develop stock flow diagrams using software. Understand the structure of exponential growth behavior, goal seeking behavior and oscillation behavior.

Lecture #7 - #8

Modeling of S-shaped Growth

Learn how to develop SI model to reproduce S-shaped growth behavior. Test the model validity using time series data. To be able to construct an epidemic process model for infectious diseases diffusion.

Lecture #9 - #10

Modeling of Market Diffusion

Learn how to develop Bass diffusion model to forecast the market penetration of products and services. To be able to construct a product disposal process model for durable consumer goods and a product repurchase process model for consumables.

Lecture #11 - #12

Modeling of Market Competition

Learn how to model network effect and path dependency in the adoption of new technologies. Be able to construct a model of market share competition among competing products.

Lecture #13 - #14

Group project

To be able to apply the learned theories and modeling techniques to forecast the market diffusion of products and services.

Lecture #15 - #16

Final Group Presentation

Summarize the results of modeling and simulation and present them as a group.

授業実施形態

Face-to-face classes (BCP Level 1 and Level 2) will be used as the basis, moving to live-streamed classes (BCP Level 3 and Level 4) when necessary.

授業外学習の指示

There are individual modeling assignments in the first half of the lecture. Students are required to conduct a small group project in the second half of the lecture.

成績評価方法

種別 割合(%) 評価基準等
定期試験（筆記）

レポート試験
（統一締切日を締切とするレポート）

上記以外の試験・レポート、平常点評価
（日常的な授業における取組状況の評価）		 100

Assignments: 60%
Final presentation: 40%

成績評価方法(備考)

If we move to live-streamed classes, group presentations will also be done online and graded.

受講および研究に関するアドバイス

Students are required to bring their personal computer for in-class exercises. Please download and install the following simulation software prior to the lecture.
Vensim® Personal Learning Edition (Vensim®PLE) by Ventana Systems Inc.

教科書

教科書(使用頻度、その他補足)

参考書

書名 著者 出版社 ISBNコード 備考
Business Dynamics John Sterman McGraw-Hill Professional 9780071179898

参考書(使用頻度、その他補足)

参考になるwwwページ

System Dynamics Society
http://www.systemdynamics.org/

授業内外における学生・教員間のコミュニケーションの方法

学生との直接対話

備考

【科目ナンバリング・カリキュラムマップはこちらから/Click here to see the Curriculum-Map and Course-Numbering】
URL:http://www.ritsumei.ac.jp//students/pathways-future/course/curriculum.html