Course Name Year Term Period Faculty / Graduate School All Instructors Credits
90751:Technology ManagementⅢ (MA) § 90752:Special Topics (Common Subjects) (EA) § 90753:Policy Science Special Lecture (P2) 2023 F2Q Sat1-2 Graduate School of Policy Science,Graduate School of Science and Engineering,Graduate School of Technology Management MINATO NOBUAKI 2

Campus

OIC/OIC

Class Venue

AS951/AS951

Language

English

Course Outline and Method

This is an introductory-level modeling and simulation course for practicing technology and innovation management. Innovative technologies such as internet and mobile phone tend to diffuse in a market indicating typical s-shape trajectory overtime. We learn the basics of modeling and simulation techniques to evaluate long-term, dynamic behavior of innovation diffusion. The lectures will be given in face-to-face classes.

Student Attainment Objectives

The goal of the course is for students to acquire fundamental modeling and simulation skill using System Dynamics to predict the market diffusion of new products and services.

Recommended Preparatory Course

Course Schedule

Lecture/Instructor（When there are multiple instructors) Theme
Keyword, References and Supplementary Information
Lecture #1 - #2

Introduction

Explain the purpose, methods, schedule, and evaluation criteria of the lecture. Understand the basics of systems dynamics modeling and simulation.
Lecture #3 - #4

Causal Loop Diagram

Understand the basics of systems thinking and be able to visualize and analyze the structure of a complex system issue using causal loop diagram.
Lecture #5 - #6

Stock and Flow Diagram

Learn how to develop stock flow diagrams using software. Understand the structure of exponential growth behavior, goal seeking behavior and oscillation behavior.
Lecture #7 - #8

Modeling of S-shaped Growth

Learn how to develop SI model to reproduce S-shaped growth behavior. Test the model validity using time series data. To be able to construct an epidemic process model for infectious diseases diffusion.
Lecture #9 - #10

Modeling of Market Diffusion

Learn how to develop Bass diffusion model to forecast the market penetration of products and services. To be able to construct a product disposal process model for durable consumer goods and a product repurchase process model for consumables.
Lecture #11 - #12

Final project (1)

To be able to apply the learned theories and modeling techniques to forecast the market diffusion of products and services.

Lecture #13 - #14

Final project (2)

Continued.
Lecture #15

Final Presentation

Summarize the results of modeling and simulation and present them as a group.

Class Format

BCP停止の場合は、BCPレベル0～2の記載どおりに授業が行われます。
During the suspension period of BCP, classes will be as described in BCP levels 0-2.

Face-to-face classes (BCP Level 1 and Level 2) will be used as the basis, moving to live-streamed classes (BCP Level 3 and Level 4) when necessary.

Recommendations for Private Study

There are individual modeling assignments in the first half of the lecture. Students are required to conduct a small group project in the second half of the lecture.

Grade Evaluation Method

Kind Percentage Grading Criteria etc.
Final Examination (Written)

Report Examination
(A report to be submitted by the unified deadline)

Exams and/or Reports other than those stated above, and Continuous Assessment　
(Evaluation of Everyday Performance in Class)		 100

Assignments: 60%
Final presentation: 40%

Grade Evaluation Method （Note）

If we move to live-streamed classes, group presentations will also be done online and graded.

Advice to Students on Study and Research Methods

Students are required to bring their personal computer for in-class exercises. Please download and install the following simulation software prior to the lecture.
Vensim® Personal Learning Edition (Vensim®PLE) by Ventana Systems Inc.

Textbooks

Title Author Publisher ISBN Code Comment
“Business Dynamics” Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World John D. Sterman ‎ McGraw-Hill Professional 978-0071179898

Textbooks （Frequency of Use, Note）

Reference Books

Reference Books （Frequency of Use, Note）

Web Pages for Reference

System Dynamics Society
http://www.systemdynamics.org/

How to Communicate with the Instructor In and Out of Class(Including Instructor Contact Information)

Talk with Students

Other Comments

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